Phillies 2012!

The season begins tomorrow in Pittsburgh. The Phillies go after a sixth consecutive National League Eastern Division title, on the road to a third World Series appearance and their ultimate goal, a second World Series championship in five years. I think there's a lot to worry about, especially early on with both Ryan Howard and Chase Utley out with injuries. If games are close because the offense is struggling, the Phils will need their bullpen to do the job and I'm not sure they're up to it right now. Then again, it seems like the bullpen has always a concern and somehow things work out.

They seem to have dodged a bullet by letting Ryan Madson go away and signing Jonathan Papelbon to be the closer. Madson had Tommy John surgery and is out for the season after signing for one year with Cincinnati. But if the guys in front of Papelbon can't hold leads for the monster starting rotation...anyway, although it's tempting (particularly for those national "experts" I love so much) to say that Atlanta or Washington or Florida Miami will overtake the Phils, I'm going to do with the Phils what I did with the Braves for all those years in the 1990s and early 2000s: keep picking them to win until they don't. So I present my picks for the divisions and wild cards (yes, two...ugh...). I again present my disclaimer that I don't have a deep awareness of what's going on with each team, so these are very uneducated guesses:

NL East
1. Phillies
2. Miami
3. Atlanta
4. Washington
5. New York Mets

NL Central: St. Louis
NL West: San Francisco
NL Wild Cards: Miami, Arizona
AL East: New York Yankees
AL Central: Detroit
AL West: Los Angeles Angels
AL Wild Cards: Texas, Tampa Bay

The S Words

Since the topics in this post all begin with "S" the title I've given this seems appropriate. And in one case, as you'll see, very appropriate.

Sarah: First, more information on the wife of Phillies pitcher Ryan Madson and her comment on fans. I'm glad I didn't really attack her on her comment, as I imagine others have. There are questions about the background of the woman who wrote the original blog post, as well as whether she identified herself as a reporter to Sarah Madson or not. The Phillies have issued a statement that says, in part: "(The writer) began to ask many personal questions about the life of a wife of a professional baseball player. The comments reported by Ms. Goldman were taken completely out of context, and as a result, Sarah is extremely upset and feels violated by the situation. Sarah says, 'For every one fan that may upset us, there are 99 Phillies fans that we love. We have lived here for years, have many friends, neighbors and acquaintances -- who also happen to be Phillies fans -- for whom we have the utmost respect.'" This post on PhillyChitChat.com states that the  woman offered him the story first, and had offered it to the Metro newspaper as well. Both rejected her. There's another "S" word that seems to apply to this woman's handling of this "story" -- sleazy. I'm definitely on the side of Sarah Madson now.

Softball: Weather permitting (or, to be accurate, if the field is dry enough Sunday after Saturday's rain), the City of Brotherly Love Softball League season opens at 9:50 am on Sunday morning. I don't expect anyone to come out and cheer me on (heck, I wouldn't be there that early if I didn't have to) but if you might be so inclined, come to Fairmount Park's Edgely Fields -- my team, now sponsored by Valanni, is on field 8. The opening day block party (200-300 blocks of S. Camac St.) takes place later that afternoon and evening.

Three Annoying People

Some comments on three people who are in the news today, at least locally, and for wildly different reasons. This is like that Keith Olbermann "Worst Person in the World" segment, back in the days when he was on television.

Annoying: Phillies pitcher Ryan Madson's wife Sarah doesn't like fans...

“I hate the fans. It is bad enough that they bother us during the season, but they will not leave us alone in December when we go out to eat. We stayed here during the off season last year, but we will be going to California this year. There must be something particularly bad about Phillies fans because all the players leave in the off season.”

I really don't want to unload on her much, especially since the comments came during an event she and her husband cohosted to raise funds for MANNA. And I don't like the idea of fans interrupting famous people at dinner. Wait until before or after, but not while they're eating. But it's her husband's success that helped the Phils ascend to the top, which raised fan interest even more, which led to all of those sold-out games at Citizens Bank Park, which gave the Phillies the revenue to pay Ryan Madson $12 million in a three-year deal that ends this season. (And whether players live here in the offseason means nothing, by the way.)

Annoying-er: Kobe Bryant called a referee a "fucking faggot" during the game last night.

My 2011 Phillies/MLB Predictions

Ignoring the fact that I still have to turn on my heat, and that areas to the north of the city might get a little snow mixed in with rain tomorrow night, it's spring. And tomorrow (in some cities) and Friday (in others, including Philadelphia), the 2011 baseball season begins. Here are my predictions for the division and wild card winners. Keep in mind that I'm going basically on what little knowledge of other teams I have in my head. I used to avidly follow every little transaction and study up on the teams and their prospects. That was before there was the Internet and a zillion cable television channels and the occasional real-life event to dilute all of the information I may try to gather. I can speak in some detail about the Phillies (and will do so below), but not much about other teams. So these are nothing more than very slightly educated guesses...

American League East: Boston
American League Central: Minnesota
American League West: Oakland
American League Wild Card: New York Yankees

And in reverse order...

National League Wild Card: Atlanta
National League West: Colorado
National League Central: Cincinnati
National League East:
5. New York Mets
4. Florida
3. Washington
2. Atlanta
...and the Phillies to win the division for the 5th year in a row.

That, of course, will take some things going the right way. While I'm amused that, from what I've heard, a lot of the so-called "experts" are picking against the Phils, I'm not surprised.

Phillies, Yankees Still Alive

The hopes of those people who wanted to see a rematch of the 2009 World Series (not to mention my predictions for the League Championship Series) took a pair of deep hits this week, but both the Phillies and Yankees are still alive. I'll deal with the Phillies in a moment.

I didn't really expect, after their hideous collapse late in Game 1, blowing a 5-0 lead after 6 and losing 6-5, that the Texas Rangers would bounce back so well. They scored early in Game 2, rolling to a 7-2 win. Then the series shifted to Yankee Stadium, and the Rangers took Games 3 (8-0) and 4 (10-3), with Cliff Lee again displaying his mastery of the Yankee hitters in Game 3. The Yankees rebounded in Game 5 with a 7-2 win despite the Rangers picking up 13 hits -- 11 off CC Sabathia in 6 innings. What disturbed me was a quote I read in today's paper, from Rangers manager Ron Washington after Game 4: "We are not thinking about how we are going to close anyone out. If it happens, it happens. And if it don't, it doesn't happen."

That just sounds a little too casual for my tastes. The experience of the Yankees over the years means that they weren't just going to roll over and die. If you have a team like that down, you have to keep them down. Sure enough, now the series goes back to Texas. The advantage the Rangers have, on paper, is that even if they lose Game 6, they'll have Yankee-killer and postseason stud Lee pitching Game 7. Then again, too often in sports such advantages aren't worth

I Think I'm Right About Brad Lidge

Remember last week when I wrote about the Phillies' issues, one of them being the struggles of Brad Lidge? I pointed out that he hasn't gotten regular work: just 3 appearances in 13 days from June 20 through July 7, and 2 appearances in 13 days (including the All-Star break) from July 12-24. I wondered if that wasn't at least part of the problem.

Let's look at what's happened since then. In the 6 days from July 25-31 Lidge pitched 4 times, struggling to get two saves vs. Colorado, pitching a scoreless inning against Arizona in a tie game in extra innings (after Ryan Madson and J.C. Romero combined to blow a 9th-inning lead), and giving up the walkoff 3-run homer to Washington's Ryan Zimmerman to lose a game in the 9th. His totals: 3 1/3 innings, 6 hits, 5 earned runs, 5 walks, 5 strikeouts.

However, after that walkoff homer, Lidge got to pitch again the very next day, and three more times in the next 5 days (including tonight's game). Look at the difference in the numbers: 3 1/3 innings, 1 hit, no runs, no walks, 4 strikeouts, 3 saves in 3 opportunities.

It seems pretty clear to me now: as long as Lidge is healthy, if he gets regular work he'll have the command of his pitches he needs to be successful. I hope Charlie Manuel realizes this, because no one else on the roster except Brad Lidge has the ability to be a consistent closer right now.

Just one note on the offense: they're doing a nice job manufacturing runs without Ryan Howard, especially during tonight's 8th-inning rally to beat the Mets (and move to within a game of Atlanta for the NL East lead): seven singles (one on a bunt), a walk and a sacrifice fly produced six runs. This bodes well, and anything they get from the just-acquired Mike Sweeney will be a bonus (Sweeney got the first and last singles in the 8th, scoring a run and driving in another).

The Chronicles Of Birthday: The Glee, The Flyers And The Phillies

As Fox was kind enough to air the special "The Power of Madonna" episode of "Glee" on my birthday, I decided to a) watch it and b) drink. I watched the show at Tabu Lounge and Sports Bar, a new hotspot in the Gayborhood (but one where everyone is welcome), in their lounge on their second-floor, while missing the end of the Phillies and Flyers games (which were playing on the TVs on the first floor). At the time I went upstairs for the show, the Phillies had just scored a run in the 5th to take a 2-0 lead over Atlanta, and the Flyers were trailing the New Jersey Devils 1-0 in Game 4 of their Eastern Conference quarterfinal series.

So how did things turn out?

"Glee" was fabulous. It was a love letter to Madonna, at times so much as to make me wonder if she had script approval. Besides the musical numbers, the rest of the show was enjoyable as well. However, I find myself wondering if I am truly finally getting into the spirit of "Glee" or if I was swayed by the Madonna influence and/or the alcohol.

Phils: Great Start, But...Phanatic: Great. Period.

It occurs to me that I haven't discussed my baseball team since the season started. There are lots of good things happening with the Phillies...and some things that are bad not so good.

Good: The Phillies are off to a 7-1 start, their best start since 1993. After the last few years of poor starts, this is a refreshing change.
Not So Good: All of their games have been against woeful Washington and hideous Houston (who still hasn't won a game).

Good: The Phillies are scoring runs in bunches. In their 8 games they've scored 11, 8, 5, 8, 9, 2, 7 and 14.
Not So Good: Again, all of this is against Washington and Houston.

Good: In the only game they didn't score 5 or more, the Phils still won 2-1 thanks to Roy Halladay, who pitched a complete game. He's won both of his starts, allowing just one earned run in 16 innings, walking 2 and striking out 17. Halladay has completely lived up to his reputation so far. J.A. Happ won his first start as well without allowing a run...
Not So Good: ...but Happ was in and out of trouble. He only lasted 5-plus innings, throwing 104 pitches. And the rest of the rotation has fallen far short of Halladay's excellence.

Phillies Post-mortem

If you're wondering how I'm feeling in the wake of the Phillies' World Series loss at the hands of the Evil Empire, to be honest the cold I'm currently battling feels worse -- and it isn't that severe a cold.

The 2009 Phillies were a team whose bullpen was beset by injuries and inconsistency; whose young pitching ace apparently spent the offseason making stupid commercials for Comcast instead of working out; whose other starting pitchers at the beginning of the season were serving up runs at a ridiculous pace; whose leadoff hitter -- the so-called catalyst -- spent three months in a hitting "slump" (a week or two is a slump; half a season is a disaster); whose pinch-hitters were feeble pretty much all year; whose high-priced new outfielder got hurt and essentially stopped producing on offense after the All-Star break.

A team with such problems has no business contending, let alone winning the NL East for the third consecutive season and appearing in the World Series in back-to-back years for the first time in franchise history, with one championship to boot. So who can feel that bad that they lost the World Series to a team that isn't capable of winning without spending hundreds of millions of dollars to buy up every possible player on the market?

So here's to the 2009 Phillies. It was quite a ride. Actually, the last three years combined have been quite a ride -- no Phillies team has ever accomplished this much over a three-year period -- and this particular one doesn't have to end just yet. With so many key players locked into contracts for at least the next year or two, if the Phils make the proper moves to shore up some weaknesses there's no reason they won't be back in the World Series again in 2010. The deal to get Cliff Lee prior to the trade deadline, without giving up their most promising minor league talent, indicates that such retooling is in capable hands. What needs to be done? Glad you asked...

The bullpen: The struggles of Brad Lidge, whether due to knee problems or not, and the multiple absences of J.C. Romero (suspension and injury) had a domino effect on the rest of the relief corps. They need Romero for the full season as the lefthanded set-up option, especially if fellow lefty Scott Eyre retires. More importantly, they need Lidge to return to something close to 2008 form -- or they need Ryan Madson to step up and become consistent enough to take Lidge's place.

The starters: Not much change here. Cliff Lee stabilized the rotation. J.A. Happ may end up as NL Rookie of the Year. Despite his 2009 problems, Cole Hamels isn't going anywhere. I think Joe Blanton is good enough for one of the remaining two spots; for a while he was the only decent starter. The Phils will have to decide on the final spot. Do they bring back Pedro Martinez for another year? See if Jamie Moyer can bounce back from his demotion and season-ending injury? Or will highly touted minor leaguer Kyle Drabek make the leap to the parent club, either at the start of the year or later on in the season?

The bench: Another year of Matt Stairs probably wouldn't hurt, as a lefthanded bat to provide the occasional home run, but if there's a better option -- someone who can also hit for average as well as having some power -- the Phils should explore it. For righthanded hitting, though, they absolutely need better options than Miguel Cairo and Eric Bruntlett. Sure, he scored the winning run in the 2008 Series and turned an unassisted triple play to end a game this year, but Bruntlett's got to go.

The lineup: The only possible change is at third base. Pedro Feliz is an excellent fielder but his hitting leaves much to be desired. The Phils have a 2010 option to keep him at $5.5 million, and it's not out of the question that they could decide against picking up that option. A better bat can be found in free agency, but it would have to be someone who has decent fielding skills as well. And he'll have to be a righthanded hitter, because there are enough (too many?) lefthanded bats already.

Please, Phillies, no more Lidge in 2009!

This simply can't go on any longer. Brad Lidge can no longer close out games in 2009. If the Phillies continue to put him out there, this team is GUARANTEED to fail in the postseason. Charlie Manuel has to face the simple fact that this is a lost year for Lidge. Yes, he was perfect in save opportunities in 2008. But he also had some luck. Remember when he gave up what would have been the tying run in Atlanta, except Shane Victorino made a hellacious throw to cut down the runner at the plate? Whether it's due to injury or just dumb luck or whatever, clearly 2009 is a down year for Lidge and there's no reason to think things will magically turn around by the time the playoffs start.

Tonight Lidge was brought into the game at Florida in the 9th with the Phils hanging on to a 6-5 lead, and promptly gave up two runs to lose the game. Todd Zolecki (Phillies' beat writer for MLB.com) tweeted this stat: "Since Manuel pulled Lidge on Sept. 8 in Washington, he is 1-3 with an 11.57 ERA in five appearances. Opponents have hit .391 against him." Actually, he's not 1-3. In his first game after that Sept. 8 game he came in with the team down 8-2 and pitched a scoreless inning. He then picked up three saves -- but gave up runs in every game. So a more accurate stat is: including tonight, in his last 4 games Lidge has given up 6 runs in 3 2/3 innings. That makes his ERA 14.73 for that span.

The problem is, right now there are no good options. Ryan Madson hasn't been any better than Lidge at closing games. Brett Myers is now nursing a strained shoulder and isn't likely to pitch again until next week. The rest of the bullpen is either similarly injured or not experienced enough.

After winning 2 of 3 in Atlanta, the Phils lost 2 of 3 in Florida. They're still up by 6 1/2 games and the magic number to clinch the division is 5. They have 11 games left: 4 at Milwaukee, then 4 at home against Houston and 3 at home against Florida. It is still extremely unlikely the Phils won't be in the playoffs, but with Lidge as their closer, they won't be there for long.

Strange Days Part 1: Phils

The two Philly teams in action over the weekend had an unusual few days, so this is a two-part tale. We start with the Phillies, who had four games against the New York Mets, a team expected to contend with the Phils but instead find themselves trying to play the spoiler.

Friday's game found Mets' starter Nelson Figueroa giving up 9 hits and 5 walks in 5 1/3 innings, but only allowing 2 runs. The Phils wasted multiple opportunities, going 4-for-19 with runners in scoring position, and managed only a 4-1 lead going into the 9th. Phils' closer-for-the-moment Ryan Madson gave up a couple of hits, but the only run he gave up came on a double play, and the Phils held on for the 4-2 win.

On Saturday the first five Mets' at-bats against Jamie Moyer, starting again in place of J.A. Happ, went like this: double, single, 2-RBI single (David Wright), 2-run homer, single. Moyer settled down, lasting through the 7th and allowing just a 7th-inning run. The Phils' offense came to life, building up a 9-5 lead through 7. Brett Myers came on in the 8th, got an out, gave up a hit and then served up a 2-run homer (Wright again). The Mets got another run off Myers and Chan Ho Park to make it 9-8. Madson came on in the 9th, got two outs, gave up a hit, and got bashed for a 2-run homer (Wright yet again). The Mets went on to finish off the 10-9 win.

Sunday there was a day-night doubleheader. In the first game the Phils got an unexpected bonus: 7 1/3 fine innings from Kyle Kendrick, and took a 5-2 lead into the 9th. Deposed closer Brad Lidge was called upon, and gave up 3 hits and 2 runs, but managed to save the game.

In the nightcap, Charlie Manuel decided to let Pedro Martinez go as long as possible. Pedro ended up throwing an astonishing 130 pitches, the most he's thrown in a game since 2001, but gave the Phils 8 scoreless innings. He had 119 pitches in his last start. The two-game workload is somewhat insane considering his age, his inactivity for much of the year and his injury issues in recent years. Madson, trying again, got the save as the Phils made a first-inning run hold up. Depsite it all, the Phils took three out of four from the Mets.

With Florida losing two over the weekend to Washington and losing tonight at St. Louis, the Phillies' lead stands at 7 games with 20 games left, starting tomorrow against Washington. This is close to the Mets' 7-game-lead-with-17-left standing in 2007 prior to their epic collapse. The Phils of 2007, however, were playing much better than the Marlins of 2009, so a similar flop by the 2009 Phils remains very unlikely.

However, the continuing struggles of the bullpen -- much too similar to those of the Mets' pen in recent years -- do not bode well for the chances of another late October parade down Broad Street.

Phillies: Time To Panic?

There seems to be a new trend for the Phillies: injuries to pitchers' obliques. Clay Condrey has been out since the end of July and is seemingly less likely to return at all this season. Today it was reported that Ryan Madson was unavailable for the four games the Phils just lost in Houston, and may not be able to pitch tonight in Washington. Most alarmingly, rookie J.A. Happ was supposed to start yesterday but suffered his oblique strain on Saturday -- during batting practice, of all things.

In addition, there's some concern about whether J.C. Romero will be ready soon, and today there are Twitter posts from local beat writers that Scott Eyre, who's inherited Romero's lefty specialist role, felt a pain in his left elbow. He said he's not worried about it, as it was "sharp and quick." The rest of us will be plenty worried for him, though.

Jamie Moyer stepped in as an emergency starter yesterday and, as he did with his three previous bullpen outings since being removed from the rotation, did a fine job. However, the team has stopped hitting. They've scored 4 runs or fewer in their last 13 games. They were 5-4 in the first 9 thanks to strong pitching. Then came the mess in Houston. Cole Hamels regressed (again), Brad Lidge blew a save (again), Cliff Lee got smoked for the second consecutive start, and yesterday Chan Ho Park coughed up the game in the 7th inning.

Despite all of that, the Phils maintain a 6-game lead in the NL East (7 in the loss column). The question is, assuming a Mets-like collapse isn't in the offing (and it likely isn't, because their opponents the rest of the way aren't that strong and the Braves and Marlins have weak spots as well), will this team be ready for the playoffs? The Phils were knocked out of the first round in 2007 by a red-hot Colorado Rockies team. That was not deeply depressing at the time. A similar result this year, after their championship run last year, will not be taken with good humor.

Phillies' bullpen pain

Yes, I know that the Phillies still lead the NL East by 7 games, and that Ryan Howard is bombing opposing pitchers right now (9 HR, 25 RBI in the last 13 games). But unless they find a pitcher who can reliably close out a tight game, how are they going to repeat as champions? Their last two games in Pittsburgh both featured blown saves. Last night it took Brad Lidge just 6 pitches to give up 3 runs and blow a 4-3 lead in the 9th. Tonight, since Lidge had pitched 4 days in a row, Ryan Madson came into the 9th with a 1-0 lead and promptly served up a game-tying homer.

Howard's 3-run homer in the 10th saved the Phils tonight, but someone has to come in and close games. Lidge has been horrendous all year, even if he was bailed out by the Eric Bruntlett legendary unassisted triple play on Monday. Madson was throwing hard -- 99 mph according to the TV graphic -- but decided he needed to throw a changeup to Brandon Moss of the Pirates tonight, and the slower pitch was sent over the fence. And Madson's failed a number of times filling in as the closer this year, even though he's generally pitched well in games in which he's pitched the 7th or 8th innings. In theory, pitching in the 9th shouldn't be any different than pitching in any other inning. Tell that to Madson's psyche.

The hope here is that Brett Myers comes back in September and takes the job away from Lidge. Myers was successful in the role in 2007. From all reports on his rehab appearances he's throwing harder than he has since that season, thanks to the hip surgery.

A piece of good news, at least until his next start: Cole Hamels pitched 8 shutout innings tonight, managing to get out of trouble a number of times.

After tomorrow's final game in Pittsburgh the Phils are back home against Atlanta, as the Braves try and stay alive in the division.

Just sit back and enjoy the Phils' ride

After looking as bad as a team can look in the last three games, the Phillies returned home and rolled to a 7-0 third-inning lead over the hated New York Mets, and went on to a 7-2 win. Back from the dead (to be specific, the minor leagues), Rodrigo Lopez shut out the Mets until the 7th and got his first win since 2007 when he was with Colorado. He hasn't even pitched in the majors in two years after having Tommy John surgery in August of that year. Jimmy Rollins led off the first with a double, scored the first of three runs in that inning, then drove in two in the third with another double. Even Ryan Madson pitched a scoreless inning. The Phils regained a one-game lead in the division.

This team just makes no sense. It really didn't last year, either, until September and October. The Phils have been rather mediocre but in a lot of ways it's been just like last year. All the pondering and analysis is kind of useless (although it won't stop us from doing it). It would be a lot easier to just let the season play out. Whatever happens will happen. There's still a lot of potential for a repeat championship and a lot of fun along the way.

I have a free ticket for tomorrow's game. Woo-hoo!