Worrying About The Phils?

It's been a while since I've said a whole lot in depth about the Phillies, so let's do so now, in a point-counterpoint deal as my mind just goes back and forth with their issues...

Point: The Phils are 55-33, the best record in the majors.
Counterpoint: They had the best record last season, and look where it got them.

Point: The offense continues to struggle way too often. Of their 88 games going into this weekend's series with Atlanta, the last three games before the All-Star break, they've scored fewer than four runs in 46 of them. That's over half, if you're math-challenged.
Counterpoint: In those 46 games they're 18-28. That's a .391 win percentage, which is much better than most, if not all, teams. That's a testament to the performances of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. In their other 42 games, the ones where they've hit the magic four-run target, they're 37-5 (with two of those losses coming this week, oddly enough).

Point: That rotation is so formidable.
Counterpoint: If the offense continues to put pressure on them to be excellent instead of merely good so often, might they not weaken just enough so that, come October, they're not quite as excellent as they need to be? And with Roy Oswalt out with his back problem and Joe Blanton (remember him?) not yet ready to return, the Phils have to keep Kyle Kendrick in the rotation along with youngster Vance Worley. (By the way, with all the praise of Worley, how do we know that Worley 2011 isn't Kendrick 2007 -- promising now but ultimately not all that great?)

Point: The hitters who have been slumping so much will come around. And they'll get a big right-handed bat at the trade deadline to help protect Ryan Howard.

My 2011 Phillies/MLB Predictions

Ignoring the fact that I still have to turn on my heat, and that areas to the north of the city might get a little snow mixed in with rain tomorrow night, it's spring. And tomorrow (in some cities) and Friday (in others, including Philadelphia), the 2011 baseball season begins. Here are my predictions for the division and wild card winners. Keep in mind that I'm going basically on what little knowledge of other teams I have in my head. I used to avidly follow every little transaction and study up on the teams and their prospects. That was before there was the Internet and a zillion cable television channels and the occasional real-life event to dilute all of the information I may try to gather. I can speak in some detail about the Phillies (and will do so below), but not much about other teams. So these are nothing more than very slightly educated guesses...

American League East: Boston
American League Central: Minnesota
American League West: Oakland
American League Wild Card: New York Yankees

And in reverse order...

National League Wild Card: Atlanta
National League West: Colorado
National League Central: Cincinnati
National League East:
5. New York Mets
4. Florida
3. Washington
2. Atlanta
...and the Phillies to win the division for the 5th year in a row.

That, of course, will take some things going the right way. While I'm amused that, from what I've heard, a lot of the so-called "experts" are picking against the Phils, I'm not surprised.

Phillies: The U Word Resurfaces

The end of the Phillies' season played out very much like most of the season itself: with a lack of offense. So often the team's bats went south this year that it shouldn't have been a surprise when it happened in the playoffs, especially against the solid pitching of the San Francisco Giants. And yet, somehow, it was. Because they told us all year long that when it really mattered, they'd be fine. After the three consecutive shutout losses against the Mets at Taxpayer Bailout Field. After losing three of four to the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates (the worst franchise despite the best ballpark). After losing 6 of 7 coming out of the All-Star break. After falling 7 games behind Atlanta in the NL East. After the four-game sweep at home against the also-ran Houston Astros. They always told us they'd turn it around.

And they did, for a while. The Phils roared to their 4th straight NL East title and the best record in the major leagues. And you couldn't ask for a better beginning to the postseason than Roy Halladay pitching a no-hitter in his first-ever playoff start. But during the entire postseason the team struggled to score, often needing subpar fielding from the Reds and Giants in order to get some runs. Their lack of hitting with runners in scoring position was excruciating, especially in NLCS Game 6, in which the Phils scored twice in the first, and Giants' starter Jonathan Sanchez was so shaky that he was removed before getting an out in the third inning. But they never scored again. They were 2-for-11 with RISP and both of those hits came in the first. Making things worse, the Phils' own fielding let them down at times.

And so I feel the need to use a word to describe this team that hasn't applied in a few years now:

More Randomness: Phils, Birds, Softball...Yarn? Chicken?

Submitted for your approval...or not...

• The Phillies finally had a day off after 24 games in 23 days. In that stretch they went 15-9 and have regained the NL East lead for the first time since May. The lead is now a game over Atlanta. Still, with Brad Lidge having elbow issues and Jimmy Rollins leaving their last game with a hamstring problem (that Charlie Manuel says wasn't serious and was due to dehydration; of course, he also said Ryan Howard's ankle injury wouldn't cause him to miss any games just before Howard went on the disabled list for nearly three weeks), and Placido Polanco's saying his elbow is broken (though he continues to play), and the team's general inconsistent hitting all season, it won't be smooth sailing the rest of the season.

• Meanwhile, the NFL is back. The Eagles start on Sunday, and that day they're wearing 1960 throwback uniforms as part of the commemoration of their 1960 championship team. Yes, that was 50 years ago. And yes, that was the last time the Eagles won a championship. So if you wonder why Eagles fans get a little (a lot) crazy, wonder no more.
  
  
  
  

Phillies Causing Mood Swings

Maybe it's the age we live in, where information is constant and reaction is instant and both pour in from  multiple sources -- 24-hour sports on TV and radio, websites, blogs, Facebook pages, Twitter feeds. But the 2010 Phillies have turned into even more of a roller-coaster ride. The slump followed by the 8-game win streak is nothing compared to the daily developments since Thursday: the trade for Roy Oswalt, Oswalt losing his first Phils start, Brad Lidge blowing another save, a comeback win with a Lidge 1-2-3 save, Ryan Howard hurting his ankle and being put on the 15-day disabled list. The ups and downs are tough enough to take for well-adjusted people, but for rabid fans? Insanity.

Once again the Phils have three members of their starting lineup currently on the DL -- Chase Utley, Shane Victorino and now Howard. And Howard has probably been the most consistent hitter of the three, and probably the most important. Besides those three, Jimmy Rollins, Placido Polanco, Carlos Ruiz, Brian Schneider, Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ (traded in the Oswalt deal), Jamie Moyer, J.C. Romero, Ryan Madson, Chad Durbin, Antonio Bastardo and Lidge have all spent time on the DL.With all the inconsistency and underachieving and slumps and these injuries, after tonight's win at Florida (behind Roy Halladay) the Phils are just 2 games out of first place. How is that possible?

The thing I like about tonight's game: of their 13 hits, nine came from Ben Francisco, Carlos Ruiz and Wilson Valdez. They still need Jimmy Rollins to get back to his form of the opening week of the season and for Raul Ibanez to keep up his recent resurgence. But they need as much offense as they can get from these other guys as well, especially with Howard out.

A Phillies Question

This started as a little "random musings" post, but I've decided to limit it to just one question...well, two, counting the follow-up:

Are the Phillies back on track? And if so, for how long? They've now won 6 in a row, cutting a 7-game deficit in the NL East in half, but they still have uncertainty on a number of fronts. The rumors keep flying about trades: getting Roy Oswalt, giving Jayson Werth, some combination of the two, or something entirely different. The Oswalt stuff swings back and forth hourly, it seems. The Astros won't trade him to St. Louis because they're in the same division! St. Louis is the frontrunner to get him! Oswalt's 2012 option for $16.5 million isn't a problem! He won't agree to any trade unless the team picks up the 2012 option! Oswalt doesn't want to play for the Phillies! The Phillies are the frontrunner to get him now! Thank heavens the trade deadline is Saturday because this is getting tiresome.

Meanwhile, they fired their hitting coach and the offense is still not consistent, although it seems to be picking up. Then there are injuries.

I'll Miss You, World Series

There's a dual meaning behind the title of this post. The more obvious meaning refers to this year's Phillies. As I tweeted last night, after the Phils managed a measly three hits in an 11-inning loss to Atlanta, the more I watch this team, the more I feel that they're not going back to the playoffs this year. And it's not solely because of the injuries they've been bombarded with this year -- including, at the moment, three of the starting eight in their lineup (and don't forget Jimmy Rollins missed a lot of time as well). Sure, they miss Chase Utley (although he hasn't put up the numbers he's capable of) and Placido Polanco and Carlos Ruiz. And they've had pitchers on the disabled list as well -- at various times including Brad Lidge, J.C. Romero, J.A. Happ, Ryan Madson and Chad Durbin.

But the offense's floundering for most of the last seven weeks isn't just because the bench players filling in for the missing Utley, Polanco and Ruiz haven't put up the same numbers. Shane Victorino, Raul Ibanez, Jayson Werth, even Ryan Howard to some extent -- they all haven't produced the way they have in the past. A lot of good starting pitching performances have gone to waste. The bullpen still has its issues but they wouldn't be nearly as magnified if the hitters weren't so lousy.

The Hot Word And The Cold Phils

Thanks to the "word verification" procedure to cut down on spam on blog comments, I now have an entry in the Urban Dictionary. When I was replying to a blog post by my friend Walt the generated word I had to enter in order to reply was "fabylla." So I claimed it as my own and gave it a definition...

fabylla (adj.) Fabulous to the extreme; more wonderful than even chocolate chip cookies: "That party was so off the hook, it was fabylla!"

It's the hot new word, darlings! I don't care if two miscreants on UrbanDictionary.com gave it "thumbs down." They are clearly not fabylla like the rest of us.

Also not fabylla, not remotely fabylla: the Phillies. They've been swept by the Atlanta Braves, they finished the road trip 2-7, they've lost seven of their last 9 and 11 of their last 15. With today's 2-1 loss they've scored a grand total of 14 runs in the last 11 games...although they finally got a home run last night, from Ryan Howard, for the first time in a week. The Braves now lead the Phils by 2 1/2 games in the NL East. It's early June, it's hardly an insurmountable gap, they haven't had Placido Polanco the last few games, they're still missing Jimmy Rollins, there's clearly no reason to panic just yet, but it's still incredibly annoying. The Phillies are unwatchable right now, unless Roy Halladay is pitching, and for a team with this much talent that is unfathomable.

Phils' w000000000000000000000000000es

Yes, there are 27 zeroes in the title of this post. That represents the zeroes put up on the scoreboard by the Phillies the last three nights in getting swept by the Mets. This is par for the course for the Phils -- when they open up a bit of a lead in the NL East, instead of pouring it on and blowing the division wide open, they inexplicably stumble and allow the rest of the teams to hang around.

On Friday night in the 6th inning Jimmy Rollins singled and, running to first base, reinjured his calf and had to leave the game. Pinch-runner Juan Castro eventually scored. Rollins went back on the disabled list and the Phils have scored just three runs since -- all in the 9th inning Sunday, in a game they trailed 8-0 at the time. They've been blanked in 46 of their last 47 innings. With that lineup, even without Rollins, that should be impossible.

At the end of play Friday the Phils had a 4 1/2-game lead over Atlanta. Their five-game losing streak has allowed the Braves to gain 3 games in the standings since then.

Catching Up With Philly Sports

For some reason I've not written so much on sports lately. Let's fix that now.

Since the playoffs always have priority, we'll start with the Flyers. Since they fell behind Boston 3-0 in Game 7 of their historic Eastern Conference semifinal series, they've outscored their opposition 13-0 -- the four-goal comeback in that game has been followed by 6-0 and 3-0 wins over Montreal in the Eastern finals. In particular in the second game, the Flyers haven't played their best. It is similar to how the Flyers outplayed the Bruins for a sizable portion of the first three games, all won by Boston. Of course, we'll hope this series doesn't reverse itself the way that one did. The Flyers could be getting Ian Laperriere and Jeff Carter back before the end of this series, which would be a huge help.

If the Flyers get two more wins and move on to the Stanley Cup finals, they'd play the winner of the Chicago-San Jose series. The Blackhawks won the first two games at San Jose, putting the Sharks in a huge hole.

Meanwhile, a slight digression:

Phils: Great Start, But...Phanatic: Great. Period.

It occurs to me that I haven't discussed my baseball team since the season started. There are lots of good things happening with the Phillies...and some things that are bad not so good.

Good: The Phillies are off to a 7-1 start, their best start since 1993. After the last few years of poor starts, this is a refreshing change.
Not So Good: All of their games have been against woeful Washington and hideous Houston (who still hasn't won a game).

Good: The Phillies are scoring runs in bunches. In their 8 games they've scored 11, 8, 5, 8, 9, 2, 7 and 14.
Not So Good: Again, all of this is against Washington and Houston.

Good: In the only game they didn't score 5 or more, the Phils still won 2-1 thanks to Roy Halladay, who pitched a complete game. He's won both of his starts, allowing just one earned run in 16 innings, walking 2 and striking out 17. Halladay has completely lived up to his reputation so far. J.A. Happ won his first start as well without allowing a run...
Not So Good: ...but Happ was in and out of trouble. He only lasted 5-plus innings, throwing 104 pitches. And the rest of the rotation has fallen far short of Halladay's excellence.

Phillies Repeat As NL Champs!

October 21 should be declared a new holiday in the city of Philadelphia: Phillies Day. Even if it's not an official shut-down-the-government, close-the-banks, paid-day-off holiday, it needs to be recognized. Just look at the record:

• October 21, 1980: the Phillies beat the Kansas City Royals to win their first World Series championship. Since I was at the Vet that night, I don't feel quite so bad about not being at any World Series games since.
• October 21, 1993: Curt Schilling's shutout keeps the Phils alive in the 1993 World Series against Toronto. It was a temporary reprieve, but we won't dwell on that.
• October 21, 2009: the defending world champions punched their ticket to the 2009 World Series, with a 10-4 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers finishing off a 4-1 win in the National League Championship Series. Ryan Howard was named the Most Valuable Player of the NLCS (he's shown here holding the MVP trophy).
  

Let's go, Mayor Nutter. Come on, City Council. Just make it a holiday already: Phillies Day.

It's hard to imagine sometimes how the Phils could be so successful this year. At the beginning the starting pitching was hideous. Coming off his stellar 2008 postseason, Cole Hamels was mediocre all year. The bullpen has been hit-or-miss most of the year, with Brad Lidge blowing more save opportunities than Madonna's blown...never mind. Their leadoff hitter, Jimmy Rollins, didn't show up until July. Their key free-agent addition, Raul Ibanez, was mostly MIA in the second half after a groin injury disrupted what had been an MVP-caliber performance in the first half.

Yet every time they seemed ripe for the taking -- when the Braves and Marlins started getting close in the NL East race, after a disappointing Game 2 loss to the Rockies in the Division Series, after a very disappointing Game 2 loss to the Dodgers in the NLCS -- the Phillies bounced back. The thrilling come-from-behind wins in the NLDS clincher and in NLCS Game 4 were just the most recent demonstrations of a resilience that was missing from the teams that fell short in this decade prior to 2007.

This is an unprecedented era in Phillies history. The 2007-08-09 Phils have surpassed the 1976-77-78 teams that also won the NL East three straight years. That team lost in the playoffs every year. This one will be appearing in its second straight World Series, with one championship already won; no other Phillies World Series team has ever been to the World Series in back-to-back seasons. These truly are the glory days for this franchise.

The Phils are the first World Series champs to return to the Series the following year since the 2001 New York Yankees and the first repeat NL champs since the 1995-96 Braves. If they win the Series again they'll be the first NL team to win back-to-back Series since the Cincinnati Reds did it in 1975 and 1976. Barring an epic collapse, they'll face the Yankees on Wednesday night. It should be a tough test, but it's not hard to imagine another Broad Street parade in a couple of weeks.

In the meantime, with a week before the Series begins, let's get to work on that holiday.

Does J-Roll Want To See That Thong?

In baseball, when a player gets a walk-off hit to win a game, it's rather common for one or more teammates to plaster his face with a towel or paper plate full of shaving cream, preferably during a post-game TV interview. Last night was no different. After his two-run 9th-inning double gave the Phillies an incredible 5-4 win over the LA Dodgers and a 3-1 lead in the NL Championship Series, Jimmy Rollins got the shaving cream treatment. Apparently it was all over his head, and when he cleaned it up some it was left like this:


Remind you of anyone?

Fortunately, for J-Roll, his team and its fans, his career has been more successful and sustained than that of Sisqo...then again, Jimmy Rollins hasn't been seen quite like this:

Phillies: NL East Threepeat!

Blogging under the influence is becoming a tradition for me.

On September 30, 2007, the Phillies won the National League Eastern Division championship for the first time since 1993. From 2001 through 2006 they came agonizingly close to winning the title numerous times, but in 2007 a strong September combined with an epic collapse by the New York Mets allowed the Phils to finally break through on the final day of the regular season. I had a bottle of "champagne" (technically, sparkling wine) sitting unopened. That day, I opened it and polished it off in short order. While drinking, I wrote this post for the Outsports blog.

That year, the Phillies were eliminated in the playoffs as immediately as possible, swept away by the Colorado Rockies. One year later, the Mets seemed poised to win again, but once again they faded late, and on the next-to-last day of the 2008 season the Phils clinched another NL East title. I was fortunate enough to be at Citizens Bank Park to see it in person. When I got home, I drank again to celebrate (this time, Southern Comfort and diet cola) and blogged again.

Unlike 2007, however, 2008 had a happy ending, as the Phillies went on to win the World Series. It was only the second Phils' championship ever, and it was the first title for the city of Philadelphia since the 76ers' 1983 title. Having to go 25 years without a parade, while seeing upstart teams with no history -- and, really, undeserving fan bases (the 2003 Florida Marlins, the 2006 Carolina Hurricanes) -- win championships, was painful. To finally see a Philly team come through was exhilarating. So, once again, I drank (rum instead of Southern Comfort this time) to celebrate. And blogged.

And so we come to 2009. The Phillies struggled early, mainly due to their starting pitchers. Closer Brad Lidge, who was perfect last year, has been far from it this year. The rest of the bullpen has battled inconsistency and injury. But unlike the last two years, the Phillies spent most of the season on top of the division and, despite the pitching conundrums and other issues (such as the horrendous slow start by Jimmy Rollins), stayed on top the rest of the season. Even with a late-season swoon shrinking their lead from 8 to 4 games, setting off some panic from fans old enough to remember the Phillies' historic 1964 choke job, this team kept its cool and reasserted itself in time to win the NL East crown once again, and gave themselves four games to rest their regulars and reset the rotation for the postseason.

What this means for the 2009 playoffs, as the Phils attempt to become the first National League team to repeat as World Series champs since the Cincinnati Reds of 1975-76? Who knows? What I know, right now, is that the Phillies reign over the National League East, and that I am surprisingly capable of writing a coherent blog post even after consuming quite a bit of alcohol. The Phils rock! And so do I!

Phils leave DC with bad game, bad hair

The Phillies finished a strange road trip with a 2-5 record. After the 4-game sweep at the hands of Houston the Phils won twice in Washington, but looked less than impressive. They finally started scoring runs, but most of them were on solo home runs, and Brad Lidge has finally lost his job as closer (at least for now) after another near-disaster. But last night they failed to finish a sweep against the worst team in baseball. Jimmy Rollins, who hadn't made an error in ages, made two last night. Joe Blanton, who's been stringing together quality starts for the last three months, reverted to his April-May form. The offense got two runs in the first and then were shut down until the 9th, when the woeful Nationals nearly let an 8-2 lead disappear.

An error, an infield hit and a walk was followed by a pinch-hit grand slam by Matt Stairs that ended two streaks. Stairs broke an 0-for-30 slump with his first hit since July (or, as a caller to sports-talk station WIP put it the other day: "The last time Stairs got a hit I had two kids and now I have three" since his wife gave birth recently). The Phils also had hit 17 consecutive homers without runners on base before the slam.

A Rollins single, a wild pitch, a Shane Victorino double and a Chase Utley infield hit later and it was 8-7 with the possible go-ahead run on first. But Ryan Howard grounded into a double play to end the game. The Phils' lead is now down to 5 games over Florida. They return home for 4 against the almost-as-woeful-as-Washington New York Mets.

Speaking of Victorino, what is he thinking with this hair?

No stopping the Phils?

It's getting harder to believe that the Phillies won't win the NL East for the third year in a row. Despite everything that's happened so far, they find themselves 6 1/2 games up in the division after winning their 8th straight game today. A sweep of the Florida Marlins (only three games, due to the rainout last night) is a fine way to come out of the All-Star break. Today, J.A. Happ pitched seven shutout innings to go to 7-0 on the year. The Marlins loaded the bases with no outs in the 6th, but Happ kept them from scoring. If he keeps this up there needs to be some Rookie of the Year consideration for him at some point. Jimmy Rollins continued his strong hitting of late with three more hits; his average is up to .236 now. Next up: the Chicago Cubs.

Sweep the Mets, sweep the Mets...

...always fun to sweep the Mets!

The way the season has gone, it's probably still premature to say the Phillies have finally righted the ship after today's 2-0 win to finish off a three-game sweep of the reeling, injury-riddled New York Mets. They've had good stretches before and then slipped, but once again a lot of things seem to be falling into place. They got three consecutive strong starts -- today it was Joe Blanton with 7 1/3 shutout innings. The bullpen didn't allow a run all weekend, with Brad Lidge getting two saves by striking out five of the six batters he faced. Jimmy Rollins homered to lead off the first today, also singled and walked; in the last 4 games he's batting .467 with a .556 on-base percentage, a slugging percentage of .867, 5 runs batted in, 2 runs scored and 3 walks. And it's the first time the Phils have won a series at home against a team other than the pitiful Washington Nationals.

And while the Phils' defense was sparkling all weekend, the visitors' wretched sixth inning yesterday (two dropped foul pops and a horrendous throw from the outfield that wasn't cut off, allowing a run to score) tells you all you need to know about the New York Mess. Even their ace, Johan Santana, couldn't save them today.

My fave t-shirt speaks to Mets fans!

After watching the Phillies beat the Mets 4-1 (for their second win in a row; Jimmy Rollins* had another hit, a key 2-run double, and walked twice -- can he keep it going?), I headed to center city Philadelphia to get a bite to eat and hang out before the July Fourth fireworks show on the Ben Franklin Parkway.

On my way to the Parkway I passed by the Westin Philadelphia Hotel on 17th Street, and a small group of Mets fans were outside. One of them noticed my 2008 World Champions cap and said, in a snide tone, "Oooh, champions, oooh..." So I stopped and said, "Well then, you'll really like the back of my t-shirt." I then turned around to show it to them:



They were not particularly amused as I walked away. I, on the other hand, was very amused.

*Edit to add: as a tribute, Rollins is using Michael Jackson songs, including "Billie Jean" and "Smooth Criminal," as his intro music before his at-bats.

Just sit back and enjoy the Phils' ride

After looking as bad as a team can look in the last three games, the Phillies returned home and rolled to a 7-0 third-inning lead over the hated New York Mets, and went on to a 7-2 win. Back from the dead (to be specific, the minor leagues), Rodrigo Lopez shut out the Mets until the 7th and got his first win since 2007 when he was with Colorado. He hasn't even pitched in the majors in two years after having Tommy John surgery in August of that year. Jimmy Rollins led off the first with a double, scored the first of three runs in that inning, then drove in two in the third with another double. Even Ryan Madson pitched a scoreless inning. The Phils regained a one-game lead in the division.

This team just makes no sense. It really didn't last year, either, until September and October. The Phils have been rather mediocre but in a lot of ways it's been just like last year. All the pondering and analysis is kind of useless (although it won't stop us from doing it). It would be a lot easier to just let the season play out. Whatever happens will happen. There's still a lot of potential for a repeat championship and a lot of fun along the way.

I have a free ticket for tomorrow's game. Woo-hoo!

Phils almost phaded out of first

With tonight's 5-2 loss, finishing off a three-game sweep at the hands of the Atlanta Braves, the Phillies have now lost 14 of 18 games and are in a virtual tie for first with the Florida Marlins. They wasted a good 7-inning start by J.A. Happ, with Ryan Madson giving up 3 in the 8th for the winning margin. Madson's been a mess recently, even after returning to his setup role when closer Brad Lidge returned from the disabled list.

While the hitting hasn't been good lately (but hey, Jimmy Rollins got 2 hits!) it's the pitching that's been poor night after night after night. Some nights it's a bad start, other nights (like tonight) it's a lousy bullpen, some nights it's both. No trades are on the horizon yet as very few teams consider themselves out of the playoff chase and, thus, willing to be a seller. Even when that happens, lots of teams need pitching. The bidding will presumably be high.

The Phillies have to somehow stay afloat until some team makes a quality pitcher available, and the way things are going, the only reason to think they can stay afloat is that most of the National League is as mediocre as they are. The Phils are back home starting tomorrow night. Of course, now that they're losing road games maybe they'll win home games. (For those who don't know, this paragraph is an example of "grasping at straws.") The Mets are in tomorrow; they're only a game out of first place, and the Braves are now just two back.