2011 Division Series Predictions

You can be pretty sure of one of my picks for the MLB playoffs' first round...or can you? Could I actually pick against the Phillies? Stay tuned.

First, I tweeted the AL picks earlier since I knew I wouldn't get around to this post before the games were played. Just a little elaboration, though:

AMERICAN LEAGUE

NY Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: My thought was that the Yankees' CC Sabathia and the Tigers' Justin Verlander would cancel each other out, and that of the remaining pitching, the Tigers had the edge. So my pick was Tigers in 5. Tonight, though, Game 1 was suspended in the second inning due to rain, and will resume tomorrow. That takes both Game 1 starters, Sabathia and Verlander, out of the picture. With Game 2 now on Sunday and no off day, it appears Verlander will now pitch on Monday in Game 3, which means he couldn't start a possible Game 5. Sabathia, on the other hand, may start Game 2 and be available for a possible Game 5. This series has now taken a turn. I'm sticking with my pick, though.

Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: After the incredible events of Wednesday night put the Rays into the playoffs, I get the feeling they're going to ride the wave. Despite not having home-field advantage, my pick was Rays in 5. And so far, so good: Tampa Bay blasted Texas 9-0 in Game 1. Last year these teams met in the ALDS with the Rays having the extra home game, but the road team won all five games in the series as Texas went on to win the AL title. I'd be surprised if that happened again.

Phillies: So Much For Those "Previews"

At the end of June the Phillies and Boston Red Sox played a three-game series at Citizens Bank Park. The media, fans, etc. hyped it as a "World Series preview."

The Phils took two of three. The Red Sox aren't in the playoffs after their mighty September collapse, capped off by last night's stunning 9th-inning loss at Baltimore combined with the Tampa Bay Rays' rally from a 7-0 deficit to beat the Yankees in extra innings.

At the end of July, and again in early August, the Phils and San Francisco Giants got together for the first time since last year's NL Championship Series. The matchup was hyped, again, as a "preview" of a possible playoff rematch.

The Phils took 4 of 7, including 3 of 4 out west. The Giants faded badly and finished eight games out of first place. They aren't in the playoffs.

At the beginning of September the Phils welcomed the Atlanta Braves to town

A Few Non-Phillies Baseball Thoughts

While we wait to see if Roy II (Oswalt) can live up to the performance of Roy I (Halladay) in Game 2 of the NL Division Series tomorrow, here are some comments on some of the other series...

Both Tampa Bay and Minnesota are on the brink of elimination already, both losing twice at home to fall behind 2-0 in the best-of-five series. And today, both teams' managers were ejected under similar circumstances.

At Tampa Bay, the Texas Rangers' Michael Young tried to check his swing on a 2-2 pitch in the 5th inning. The umpires ruled he did. On the next pitch he hit a 3-run homer to give the Rangers a 5-0 lead. Rays manager Joe Maddon (who was just shown in a vitamin commercial saying it's important he keep his focus, or something) went out to talk to his pitcher, yelled at the first-base ump who made the checked-swing ruling, and was thrown out of the game.

At Minnesota, Twins pitcher Carl Pavano thought he had the Yankees' Lance Berkman struck out looking in the 7th, but the pitch was called a ball, and Berkman then doubled in the go-ahead run. Twins manager Ron Gardenhire came out to talk to Pavano, and stayed until the home plate umpire came out to break up the gathering at the mound, and Gardenhire then said something that led to his ejection.

Just a strange coincidence, but both the Rays and Twins are struggling and the loss of composure needs to be solved if either team wants to make a miraculous comeback and prevent a Yankees-Rangers AL championship series.

2010 Division Series Predictions

I figured I'd better document these before tomorrow, when the baseball playoffs begin.


American League

Texas vs. Tampa Bay: Texas has Cliff Lee now but Tampa has playoff experience from 2008 and had a much tougher road to get into the postseason than did the Rangers. Rays in 4.

NY Yankees vs. Minnesota: Boy, would I love love love to see the Twins finally break through and beat the Yankees. Unfortunately, Yankees in 5.

National League

Atlanta vs. San Francisco: Braves staggered in September. Giants not only caught up to San Diego but held off Colorado as well. Low-scoring series. Giants in 4.

And, as always, saving the best for last...

Cincinnati vs. Philadelphia: The Reds are the Phillies...of 2007: an upstart division winner that goes out in the first round. The Phillies are the Reds...of 1976, the Big Red Machine that easily pushed aside another upstart division winner, the Phils. Phillies in 4.

My Phillies pet peeve...

Okay, it's technically one of my Phillies pet peeves. At times there are many. But this one occurred in tonight's game, a 7-1 loss at Tampa Bay. Last night they broke their 6-game losing streak by scoring 6 runs in the first inning en route to a 10-1 win. The runs didn't come easy tonight. Starting pitcher Joe Blanton did a fine job for 7 innings, allowing only a 2-run homer by our old friend Pat Burrell in the second inning. The Rays scored 5 in the 8th to break it open, with a couple of not-hard-hit balls that fell in helping.

In the 4th, though, with the game still close the tide seemed about to change. Three straight walks by the Rays' Matt Garza loaded the bases with nobody out. Any moron can tell you that, when a pitcher is struggling to get the ball over the plate, if you're batting you stand there and take at least one pitch, if not more. Jayson Werth went up hacking, and grounded the first pitch he saw for a third-to-home-to-first double play. A golden opportunity turned to dust.

This is the biggest problem with this team when they're going poorly: lack of discipline at the plate. If Werth is Exhibit A tonight, Exhibit B is Jimmy Rollins, who hasn't had a hit in the last 5 games and is batting below .200 in June. Because of his defense you can't bench him, but he simply shouldn't lead off any more, not until he has about a month of great hitting.

There is good news: closer Brad Lidge is ready to return from his knee injury and will be activated tomorrow.

Talkin' 'bout my Phillies

The first real post here (not that the first one isn't real, but...) just has to be about your defending World Series Champion Philadelphia Phillies. It has been a surreal season thus far. It began with all of the attendant pomp and ceremony commemorating the 2008 champs, which was tempered by the death of legendary broadcaster Harry Kalas. The starting rotation, a strength down the stretch and in the postseason last year, got off to a horrendous start. It's gotten better but was weakened by the likely season-ending injury to Brett Myers. The bullpen was strong at the start but stints on the disabled list by Brad Lidge and Scott Eyre (and, as of tomorrow according to reports, Clay Condrey) caused a cascade of role adjustments and a series of lousy performances.

The offense kept the team afloat for much of the year despite a season-long slump by leadoff hitter Jimmy Rollins. Raul Ibanez has been a godsend, putting up MVP-like numbers, but is now on the DL himself, and since then the team hitting has really taken a nosedive. Strangest of all, the Phils have a 23-9 record on the road, best in the major leagues, but are only 13-22 at home, second-worst in the majors (ahead of only the woeful Washington Nationals), after a just-completed 1-8 homestand, among the worst in team history.

Despite all of this, the Phils are in first place, 1 1/2 games ahead of the New York Mets in the NL East. It makes for a glass half-empty/half full debate: despite their many issues the Phillies are still in first place; or, despite all of their problems the Mets are right in the hunt -- and since both teams have struggled, the Florida Marlins and Atlanta Braves are not far behind.

With all of this going on, especially lately, it would be easy to be outraged. I've been more annoyed than angry, though. I guess coming off a long-awaited championship will do that. Besides, I've figured all year that it will come down to September, and we all know what's happened to the Mets the last two Septembers.

Next up for the Phils is a road trip (what a relief) that starts with a World Series rematch against the Tampa Bay Rays.