Sunday, October 24, 2010

Phillies: The U Word Resurfaces

The end of the Phillies' season played out very much like most of the season itself: with a lack of offense. So often the team's bats went south this year that it shouldn't have been a surprise when it happened in the playoffs, especially against the solid pitching of the San Francisco Giants. And yet, somehow, it was. Because they told us all year long that when it really mattered, they'd be fine. After the three consecutive shutout losses against the Mets at Taxpayer Bailout Field. After losing three of four to the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates (the worst franchise despite the best ballpark). After losing 6 of 7 coming out of the All-Star break. After falling 7 games behind Atlanta in the NL East. After the four-game sweep at home against the also-ran Houston Astros. They always told us they'd turn it around.

And they did, for a while. The Phils roared to their 4th straight NL East title and the best record in the major leagues. And you couldn't ask for a better beginning to the postseason than Roy Halladay pitching a no-hitter in his first-ever playoff start. But during the entire postseason the team struggled to score, often needing subpar fielding from the Reds and Giants in order to get some runs. Their lack of hitting with runners in scoring position was excruciating, especially in NLCS Game 6, in which the Phils scored twice in the first, and Giants' starter Jonathan Sanchez was so shaky that he was removed before getting an out in the third inning. But they never scored again. They were 2-for-11 with RISP and both of those hits came in the first. Making things worse, the Phils' own fielding let them down at times.

And so I feel the need to use a word to describe this team that hasn't applied in a few years now:
underachievers.

This is a team that had very high expectations, and those expectations only got higher after the trade for Roy Oswalt in July. The Phils were trying to make history, becoming the first team to win three consecutive NL pennants since the 1940s, and by winning their second World Series title in three years they could have started throwing around the "dynasty" claim. Instead, as of right now they're no better than the Atlanta Braves franchise that won 14 division titles in a row but only managed to win one World Series.

Was there a bit of complacency this year? Is that why there were such prolonged hitting slumps all year? The fielding miscues during the playoffs? The baserunning gaffes? (I'm still mad at Shane Victorino getting doubled off on a line drive to first base with one out in the 8th last night.) I don't know.

And the future is definitely up in the air. The pitching, of course, is pretty solid for 2011. Some tinkering will be done but Halladay, Oswalt and Cole Hamels will all be around. But Jayson Werth is a free agent and likely to get a monstrous contract offer that the Phillies can't or won't be able to match. They have a lot of large salaries on the books for 2011 (and, in some cases, well beyond). So unless the Phils' ownership unexpectedly increases the budget or GM Ruben Amaro Jr. finds some really creative way to free up some cash, the Phils will have to find another righthanded bat for their lineup. They can't just go with young Domonic Brown. They're too lefthanded already. And I don't have much confidence that a platoon of Brown and Ben Francisco is the answer either. In my dream scenario the Phils find someone to take Raul Ibanez (who has one year left on his deal) off their hands, sign Werth and plug Brown and/or Francisco into left field. It's probably nothing more than a pipe dream.

Jimmy Rollins has clearly begun the downward slide of his career, and I fear the same may begin before too long to Chase Utley. Utley's fielding miscues at times were shocking, simply because of his excellence the last few years. Whether it's because of the injuries he's had in recent years or just a coincidence, between that and his subpar hitting, it's something to think about. His swing just didn't look the same at the end of this year.

I don't know what to make of Ryan Howard. He actually hit .303 in the playoffs -- no other starter's average was higher than .226 -- but he only had singles or doubles, and no runs batted in. Think about it -- Roy Halladay drove in more runs (one) than Ryan Howard in the postseason! Howard's production was down from previous years, but he also missed 19 games. But he fared much worse in the playoffs.

Rollins, Utley and Carlos Ruiz all turn 32 in the offseason, Howard will be 31, and Shane Victorino turns 30. Placido Polanco turned 35 this month. Ibanez is 38. This is a team that's beginning to show signs of age already, and with the wheeling and dealing the last couple of years (Cliff Lee, Halladay, Oswalt) there may not be enough depth in the farm system. Can the Phillies do what the Eagles have done for a long stretch under Andy Reid -- make changes at key positions while still being a title contender every year? (Granted, the Phils have one World Series win in two tries while the Eagles have their lone Super Bowl loss, but you know what I mean.) Or is the window of opportunity about to be slammed shut?

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